Project Objectives

The project will be supported on the following research axes:
  • The first axis consists of developing new degradation models for rail track degradation, assessing associated uncertainty using among others Bayesian analysis as well as data mining techniques and cluster analysis, combining expert judgement and an extensive data set (from 2001 to now), validated by engineering past models and past knowledge in track degradation.

  • The second axis consists of modelling dynamic availability and maintainability, integrating simulation of maintenance operations, and incorporating as explicit as possible operating conditions and infrastructure characteristics.

  • The third axis consists of uncertainty quantification of life-cycle costs towards a dynamic probabilistic LCC model for supporting new rail lines investments and the management of rail lines in commercial operation, optimizing investment and maintenance strategies.


The project aims to contribute to the developments of the mentioned research axes, following a strong research stream of the main team researchers. From a structure viewpoint, the research project is divided into 4 tasks, with the first and second axes developed in task 2 while the third axe is developed in task 3, as the project flow chart shows.

Project Flow Chart